2015-04-03 Ryosuke Niwa <rniwa@webkit.org>
+ Add time series segmentation algorithms as moving averages
+ https://bugs.webkit.org/show_bug.cgi?id=143362
+
+ Reviewed by Chris Dumez.
+
+ This patch implements two preliminary time series segmentation algorithms as moving averages.
+
+ Recursive t-test: Compute Welch's t-statistic at each point in a given segment of the time series.
+ If Welch's t-test implicates a statistically significance difference, then split the segment into two
+ sub segments with the maximum t-statistic (i.e. the point at which if split would yield the highest
+ probability that two segments do not share the same "underlying" mean in classical / frequentist sense).
+ We repeat this process recursively. See [1] for the evaluation of this particular algorithm.
+
+ Schwarz criterion: Use Schwarz or Bayesian information criterion to heuristically find the optimal
+ segmentation. Intuitively, the problem of finding the best segmentation comes down to minimizing the
+ residual sum of squares in each segment as in linear regressions. That is, for a given segment with
+ values y_1 through y_n with mean y_avg, we want to minimize the sum of (y_i - y_avg)^2 over i = 1
+ through i = n. However, we also don't want to split every data point into a separate segment so we need
+ to account the "cost" of introducing new segments. We use a cost function that's loosely based on two
+ models discussed in [2] for simplicity. We will tune this cost function further in the future.
+
+ The problem of finding the best segmentation then reduces to a search problem. Unfortunately, our problem
+ space is exponential with respect to the size of the time series since we could split at each data point.
+ We workaround this problem by first splitting the time series into a manageable smaller grids, and only
+ considering segmentation of a fixed size (i.e. the number of segments is constant). Since time series
+ tend to contain a lot more data points than segments, this strategy finds the optimal solution without
+ exploring much of the problem space.
+
+ Finding the optimal segmentation of a fixed size is, itself, another search problem that is equivalent to
+ finding the shortest path of a fixed length in DAG. Here, we use dynamic programming with a matrix of size
+ n by n where n is the length of the time series (grid). Each entry in this matrix at (i, k) stores
+ the minimum cost of segmenting data points 1 through i using k segments. We start our search at i = 1.
+ Clearly C(1, 0) = 0 (note the actual code uses 0-based index). In i-th iteration, we compute the cost
+ S(i, j) of each segment starting at i and ending at another point j after i and update C(j, k + 1) by
+ min( C(j, k + 1), C(i, k) + S(i, j) ) for all values of j above i.
+
+ [1] Kensuke Fukuda, H. Eugene Stanley, and Luis A. Nunes Amaral, "Heuristic segmentation of
+ a nonstationary time series", Physical Review E 69, 021108 (2004)
+
+ [2] Marc Lavielle, Gilles Teyssi`ere, "Detection of Multiple Change–Points in Multivariate Time Series"
+ Lithuanian Mathematical Journal, vol 46, 2006
+
+ * public/v2/index.html: Show the optional description for the chosen moving average strategy.
+ * public/v2/js/statistics.js:
+ (Statistics.testWelchsT):
+ (Statistics.computeWelchsT): Extracted from testWelchsT. Generalized to take the offset and the length
+ of each value array between which Welch's t-statistic is computed. This generalization helps the
+ Schwarz criterion segmentation algorithm avoid splitting values array O(n^2) times.
+ (.sampleMeanAndVarianceForValues): Ditto for the generalization.
+ (.recursivelySplitIntoTwoSegmentsAtMaxTIfSignificantlyDifferent): Added. Implements recursive t-test.
+ (.splitIntoSegmentsUntilGoodEnough): Added. Implements Schwarz criterion.
+ (.findOptimalSegmentation): Added. Implements the algorithm to find the optimal segmentation of a fixed
+ segment count.
+ (.SampleVarianceUpperTriangularMatrix): Added. Stores S(i, j) used by findOptimalSegmentation.
+ (.SampleVarianceUpperTriangularMatrix.prototype.costBetween): Added.
+
+2015-04-03 Ryosuke Niwa <rniwa@webkit.org>
+
REGRESSION: Perf dashboard sometimes fails to update zooming level
https://bugs.webkit.org/show_bug.cgi?id=143359
// Welch's t-test (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welch%27s_t_test)
this.testWelchsT = function (values1, values2, probability) {
- var stat1 = sampleMeanAndVarianceForValues(values1);
- var stat2 = sampleMeanAndVarianceForValues(values2);
+ return this.computeWelchsT(values1, 0, values1.length, values2, 0, values2.length, probability).significantlyDifferent;
+ }
+
+ this.computeWelchsT = function (values1, startIndex1, length1, values2, startIndex2, length2, probability) {
+ var stat1 = sampleMeanAndVarianceForValues(values1, startIndex1, length1);
+ var stat2 = sampleMeanAndVarianceForValues(values2, startIndex2, length2);
var sumOfSampleVarianceOverSampleSize = stat1.variance / stat1.size + stat2.variance / stat2.size;
- var t = (stat1.mean - stat2.mean) / Math.sqrt(sumOfSampleVarianceOverSampleSize);
+ var t = Math.abs((stat1.mean - stat2.mean) / Math.sqrt(sumOfSampleVarianceOverSampleSize));
// http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welch–Satterthwaite_equation
var degreesOfFreedom = sumOfSampleVarianceOverSampleSize * sumOfSampleVarianceOverSampleSize
/ (stat1.variance * stat1.variance / stat1.size / stat1.size / stat1.degreesOfFreedom
+ stat2.variance * stat2.variance / stat2.size / stat2.size / stat2.degreesOfFreedom);
-
- // They're different beyond the confidence interval of the specified probability.
- return Math.abs(t) > tDistributionQuantiles[probability || 0.9][Math.round(degreesOfFreedom - 1)];
+ return {
+ t: t,
+ degreesOfFreedom: degreesOfFreedom,
+ significantlyDifferent: t > tDistributionQuantiles[probability || 0.9][Math.round(degreesOfFreedom - 1)],
+ };
}
- function sampleMeanAndVarianceForValues(values) {
- var sum = Statistics.sum(values);
- var squareSum = Statistics.squareSum(values);
- var sampleMean = sum / values.length;
+ function sampleMeanAndVarianceForValues(values, startIndex, length) {
+ var sum = 0;
+ for (var i = 0; i < length; i++)
+ sum += values[startIndex + i];
+ var squareSum = 0;
+ for (var i = 0; i < length; i++)
+ squareSum += values[startIndex + i] * values[startIndex + i];
+ var sampleMean = sum / length;
// FIXME: Maybe we should be using the biased sample variance.
- var unbiasedSampleVariance = (squareSum - sum * sum / values.length) / (values.length - 1);
+ var unbiasedSampleVariance = (squareSum - sum * sum / length) / (length - 1);
return {
mean: sampleMean,
variance: unbiasedSampleVariance,
- size: values.length,
- degreesOfFreedom: values.length - 1,
+ size: length,
+ degreesOfFreedom: length - 1,
+ }
+ }
+
+ function recursivelySplitIntoTwoSegmentsAtMaxTIfSignificantlyDifferent(values, startIndex, length, minLength, segments) {
+ var tMax = 0;
+ var argTMax = null;
+ for (var i = 1; i < length - 1; i++) {
+ var firstLength = i;
+ var secondLength = length - i;
+ if (firstLength < minLength || secondLength < minLength)
+ continue;
+ var result = Statistics.computeWelchsT(values, startIndex, firstLength, values, startIndex + i, secondLength, 0.9);
+ if (result.significantlyDifferent && result.t > tMax) {
+ tMax = result.t;
+ argTMax = i;
+ }
+ }
+ if (!tMax) {
+ segments.push(values.slice(startIndex, startIndex + length));
+ return;
}
+ recursivelySplitIntoTwoSegmentsAtMaxTIfSignificantlyDifferent(values, startIndex, argTMax, minLength, segments);
+ recursivelySplitIntoTwoSegmentsAtMaxTIfSignificantlyDifferent(values, startIndex + argTMax, length - argTMax, minLength, segments);
}
// One-sided t-distribution.
return averages;
}
},
+ {
+ id: 4,
+ label: 'Segmentation: Recursive t-test',
+ description: "Recursively split values into two segments if Welch's t-test detects a statistically significant difference.",
+ parameterList: [{label: "Minimum segment length", value: 20, min: 5}],
+ execute: function (minLength, values) {
+ if (values.length < 2)
+ return null;
+
+ var averages = new Array(values.length);
+ var segments = new Array;
+ recursivelySplitIntoTwoSegmentsAtMaxTIfSignificantlyDifferent(values, 0, values.length, minLength, segments);
+ var averageIndex = 0;
+ for (var j = 0; j < segments.length; j++) {
+ var values = segments[j];
+ var mean = Statistics.sum(values) / values.length;
+ for (var i = 0; i < values.length; i++)
+ averages[averageIndex++] = mean;
+ }
+
+ return averages;
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ id: 5,
+ label: 'Segmentation: Schwarz criterion',
+ description: 'Adaptive algorithm that maximizes the Schwarz criterion (BIC).',
+ // Based on Detection of Multiple Change–Points in Multivariate Time Series by Marc Lavielle (July 2006).
+ execute: function (values) {
+ if (values.length < 2)
+ return null;
+
+ var averages = new Array(values.length);
+ var averageIndex = 0;
+
+ // Split the time series into grids since splitIntoSegmentsUntilGoodEnough is O(n^2).
+ var gridLength = 500;
+ var totalSegmentation = [0];
+ for (var gridCount = 0; gridCount < Math.ceil(values.length / gridLength); gridCount++) {
+ var gridValues = values.slice(gridCount * gridLength, (gridCount + 1) * gridLength);
+ var segmentation = splitIntoSegmentsUntilGoodEnough(gridValues);
+
+ if (Statistics.debuggingSegmentation)
+ console.log('grid=' + gridCount, segmentation);
+
+ for (var i = 1; i < segmentation.length - 1; i++)
+ totalSegmentation.push(gridCount * gridLength + segmentation[i]);
+ }
+
+ if (Statistics.debuggingSegmentation)
+ console.log('Final Segmentation', totalSegmentation);
+
+ totalSegmentation.push(values.length);
+
+ for (var i = 1; i < totalSegmentation.length; i++) {
+ var segment = values.slice(totalSegmentation[i - 1], totalSegmentation[i]);
+ var average = Statistics.sum(segment) / segment.length;
+ for (var j = 0; j < segment.length; j++)
+ averages[averageIndex++] = average;
+ }
+
+ return averages;
+ }
+ },
];
+ this.debuggingSegmentation = false;
+
+ function splitIntoSegmentsUntilGoodEnough(values) {
+ if (values.length < 2)
+ return [0, values.length];
+
+ var matrix = new SampleVarianceUpperTriangularMatrix(values);
+
+ var SchwarzCriterionBeta = Math.log1p(values.length - 1) / values.length;
+
+ var BirgeAndMassartC = 2.5; // Suggested by the authors.
+ var BirgeAndMassartPenalization = function (segmentCount) {
+ return segmentCount * (1 + BirgeAndMassartC * Math.log1p(values.length / segmentCount - 1));
+ }
+
+ var segmentation;
+ var minTotalCost = Infinity;
+ var maxK = 50;
+
+ for (var k = 1; k < maxK; k++) {
+ var start = Date.now();
+ var result = findOptimalSegmentation(values, matrix, k);
+ var cost = result.cost / values.length;
+ var penalty = SchwarzCriterionBeta * BirgeAndMassartPenalization(k);
+ if (cost + penalty < minTotalCost) {
+ minTotalCost = cost + penalty;
+ segmentation = result.segmentation;
+ } else
+ maxK = Math.min(maxK, k + 3);
+ if (Statistics.debuggingSegmentation)
+ console.log('splitIntoSegmentsUntilGoodEnough', k, Date.now() - start, cost + penalty);
+ }
+
+ return segmentation;
+ }
+
+ function findOptimalSegmentation(values, costMatrix, segmentCount) {
+ // Dynamic programming. cost[i][k] = The cost to segmenting values up to i into k segments.
+ var cost = new Array(values.length);
+ for (var i = 0; i < values.length; i++) {
+ cost[i] = new Float32Array(segmentCount + 1);
+ }
+
+ var previousNode = new Array(values.length);
+ for (var i = 0; i < values.length; i++)
+ previousNode[i] = new Array(segmentCount + 1);
+
+ cost[0] = [0]; // The cost of segmenting single value is always 0.
+ previousNode[0] = [-1];
+ for (var segmentStart = 0; segmentStart < values.length; segmentStart++) {
+ var costBySegment = cost[segmentStart];
+ for (var count = 0; count < segmentCount; count++) {
+ if (previousNode[segmentStart][count] === undefined)
+ continue;
+ for (var segmentEnd = segmentStart + 1; segmentEnd < values.length; segmentEnd++) {
+ var newCost = costBySegment[count] + costMatrix.costBetween(segmentStart, segmentEnd);
+ if (previousNode[segmentEnd][count + 1] === undefined || newCost < cost[segmentEnd][count + 1]) {
+ cost[segmentEnd][count + 1] = newCost;
+ previousNode[segmentEnd][count + 1] = segmentStart;
+ }
+ }
+ }
+ }
+
+ if (Statistics.debuggingSegmentation) {
+ console.log('findOptimalSegmentation with k=', segmentCount);
+ for (var i = 0; i < cost.length; i++) {
+ var t = cost[i];
+ var s = '';
+ for (var j = 0; j < t.length; j++) {
+ var p = previousNode[i][j];
+ s += '(k=' + j;
+ if (p !== undefined)
+ s += ' c=' + t[j] + ' p=' + p
+ s += ')';
+ }
+ console.log(i, values[i], s);
+ }
+ }
+
+ var currentIndex = values.length - 1;
+ var segmentation = new Array(segmentCount);
+ segmentation[0] = values.length;
+ for (var i = 0; i < segmentCount; i++) {
+ currentIndex = previousNode[currentIndex][segmentCount - i];
+ segmentation[i + 1] = currentIndex;
+ }
+
+ return {segmentation: segmentation.reverse(), cost: cost[values.length - 1][segmentCount]};
+ }
+
+ function SampleVarianceUpperTriangularMatrix(values) {
+ // The cost of segment (i, j].
+ var costMatrix = new Array(values.length - 1);
+ for (var i = 0; i < values.length - 1; i++) {
+ var remainingValueCount = values.length - i - 1;
+ costMatrix[i] = new Float32Array(remainingValueCount);
+ var sum = values[i];
+ var squareSum = sum * sum;
+ costMatrix[i][0] = 0;
+ for (var j = i + 1; j < values.length; j++) {
+ var currentValue = values[j];
+ sum += currentValue;
+ squareSum += currentValue * currentValue;
+ var sampleSize = j - i + 1;
+ var stdev = Statistics.sampleStandardDeviation(sampleSize, sum, squareSum);
+ costMatrix[i][j - i - 1] = sampleSize * Math.log1p(stdev * stdev - 1);
+ }
+ }
+ this.costMatrix = costMatrix;
+ }
+
+ SampleVarianceUpperTriangularMatrix.prototype.costBetween = function(from, to) {
+ if (from >= this.costMatrix.length || from == to)
+ return 0; // The cost of the segment that starts at the last data point is 0.
+ return this.costMatrix[from][to - from - 1];
+ }
+
this.EnvelopingStrategies = [
{
id: 100,
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